1/a predicted EGD | 1/a observed EGD | 1/a predicted revised | 1/a observed revised
p predicted EGD | p observed EGD | p predicted revised | p observed revised
rating point contibutions EGD | rating point contributions Revised
rating points for game results EGD | rating points for game results Revised |
The horizontal axis shows the go rating scale used by the EGD and the revised rating system.
The vertical axis shows winning probability.
The thick blue line corresponds to standard Elo winning probabilities.
The colored lines from yellow to blue are winning probabilities colored per rating grade.
Handicap advantage is added to the reciever's rating(decreased by half a stone).
The handicap lines are more noisy (they have larger statistical errors because of a smaller sample size),
but the 50% intersections are rather consistently located.
The 50% intersection are evenly separated by 100 points over the whole range.
On average the intersections are close to the nominal ratings corrected by handicap.
The slopes at which they intersect 50% are also fairly consistent.
My conclusion is that EGD / Revised rating differences match quite well with handicap.
The revised ratings are close to the EGD ratings (the bias is not more than 50 or so), so they won't differ much in this respect.
Pwin(%) data in tabular format (note: black rating is corrected for handicap):
| G-9 | G-8 | G-7 | G-6 | G-5 | G-4 | G-3 | G-2 | G-1 | G0 | G+1 | G+2 | G+3 | G+4 | G+5 | G+6 | G+7 | G+8 | G+9 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100 | 50.0 | 43.3 | 36.4 | 37.8 | 23.1 | 18.7 | 24.6 | 14.2 | |||||||||||
| 200 | 45.0 | 38.7 | 30.2 | 26.1 | 18.2 | 12.8 | 13.1 | 6.7 | 6.8 | ||||||||||
| 300 | 54.2 | 50.0 | 44.5 | 37.8 | 32.1 | 21.1 | 17.5 | 11.5 | 10.2 | 8.9 | 6.3 | ||||||||
| 400 | 56.0 | 60.3 | 56.2 | 50.0 | 43.8 | 41.1 | 31.4 | 22.4 | 18.2 | 11.5 | 9.6 | 6.2 | 5.3 | ||||||
| 500 | 64.6 | 70.5 | 61.8 | 56.0 | 50.0 | 44.0 | 37.8 | 28.3 | 21.8 | 16.1 | 14.2 | 9.0 | 8.3 | 3.8 | |||||
| 600 | 62.2 | 73.9 | 67.3 | 59.9 | 56.2 | 50.0 | 41.6 | 36.4 | 30.8 | 23.9 | 16.1 | 12.1 | 7.4 | 7.7 | 4.1 | ||||
| 700 | 77.9 | 83.9 | 79.6 | 68.6 | 62.2 | 57.9 | 50.0 | 44.8 | 38.7 | 31.4 | 23.1 | 17.5 | 12.8 | 11.6 | 7.2 | 4.1 | |||
| 800 | 82.3 | 87.2 | 81.8 | 77.6 | 71.7 | 62.7 | 55.5 | 50.0 | 44.5 | 38.7 | 33.4 | 25.4 | 16.8 | 12.1 | 9.0 | 7.7 | 2.9 | ||
| 900 | 76.9 | 86.9 | 88.5 | 81.0 | 77.6 | 69.2 | 61.8 | 55.2 | 50.0 | 44.0 | 39.7 | 30.8 | 23.1 | 18.2 | 14.2 | 9.6 | 4.9 | 2.9 | |
| 1000 | 86.9 | 91.1 | 90.4 | 89.1 | 85.2 | 76.1 | 67.3 | 61.3 | 56.2 | 50.0 | 45.0 | 37.8 | 32.1 | 25.4 | 17.5 | 14.2 | 7.9 | 5.7 | 3.8 |
| 1100 | 93.2 | 91.1 | 89.1 | 85.1 | 83.2 | 76.9 | 67.3 | 60.3 | 55.2 | 50.0 | 43.3 | 37.8 | 32.7 | 24.6 | 16.1 | 11.5 | 7.4 | 4.9 | 4.5 |
| 1200 | 93.7 | 93.8 | 91.5 | 87.9 | 81.8 | 74.6 | 68.6 | 62.2 | 56.7 | 50.0 | 45.3 | 39.2 | 31.4 | 23.1 | 16.8 | 10.9 | 5.4 | 6.7 | 1.7 |
| 1300 | 95.1 | 91.7 | 92.6 | 87.2 | 83.2 | 78.2 | 67.9 | 62.2 | 54.7 | 50.0 | 43.0 | 37.8 | 32.7 | 23.1 | 14.8 | 9.3 | 6.1 | 4.2 | 0.3 |
| 1400 | 95.9 | 93.8 | 88.4 | 87.2 | 81.0 | 74.6 | 67.3 | 61.3 | 56.5 | 50.0 | 43.5 | 38.2 | 31.4 | 23.1 | 15.4 | 8.8 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 1.1 |
| 1500 | 95.5 | 91.1 | 89.8 | 86.5 | 83.9 | 75.4 | 67.9 | 62.2 | 56.7 | 50.0 | 44.8 | 38.7 | 31.4 | 21.1 | 11.9 | 5.0 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 0.4 |
| 1600 | 95.9 | 92.8 | 91.0 | 85.1 | 82.5 | 76.1 | 67.3 | 61.8 | 55.0 | 50.0 | 43.5 | 37.3 | 27.7 | 19.8 | 11.4 | 2.8 | 3.6 | 0.6 | |
| 1700 | 97.6 | 94.3 | 93.0 | 89.1 | 82.5 | 76.9 | 69.2 | 61.3 | 57.0 | 50.0 | 42.8 | 35.4 | 25.4 | 15.7 | 6.9 | 3.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | |
| 1800 | 96.5 | 94.7 | 92.1 | 89.1 | 86.4 | 76.1 | 69.2 | 62.7 | 57.0 | 50.0 | 41.8 | 32.7 | 21.1 | 10.7 | 5.7 | 1.8 | 0.9 | ||
| 1900 | 95.5 | 94.7 | 94.3 | 90.2 | 85.2 | 79.6 | 71.7 | 65.0 | 58.2 | 50.0 | 40.4 | 30.2 | 17.4 | 9.3 | 4.3 | 1.7 | |||
| 2000 | 96.2 | 92.8 | 93.9 | 92.1 | 86.4 | 78.9 | 74.6 | 66.8 | 59.4 | 50.0 | 39.7 | 26.1 | 16.1 | 6.7 | 3.6 | 1.2 | |||
| 2100 | 98.4 | 96.1 | 95.0 | 94.0 | 90.5 | 85.8 | 78.9 | 70.7 | 60.1 | 50.0 | 36.4 | 22.8 | 12.8 | 5.3 | 1.5 | 0.3 | |||
| 2200 | 99.7 | 97.7 | 98.2 | 97.6 | 92.8 | 88.9 | 82.6 | 73.9 | 63.4 | 50.0 | 35.0 | 21.4 | 10.9 | 3.6 | 0.7 | ||||
| 2300 | 98.9 | 97.3 | 96.4 | 97.2 | 94.3 | 91.1 | 84.7 | 76.9 | 65.5 | 50.0 | 33.4 | 19.2 | 7.2 | 1.9 | |||||
| 2400 | 99.6 | 99.7 | 99.1 | 97.9 | 95.5 | 93.3 | 87.5 | 78.9 | 66.4 | 50.0 | 31.9 | 14.9 | 5.5 | 1.2 | |||||
| 2500 | 99.5 | 99.1 | 98.0 | 96.9 | 95.1 | 89.4 | 81.5 | 68.8 | 50.0 | 28.7 | 11.9 | 3.0 | |||||||
| 2600 | 99.1 | 98.6 | 96.1 | 93.0 | 85.3 | 71.5 | 50.0 | 24.8 | 7.9 | 3.0 | |||||||||
| 2700 | 99.7 | 99.5 | 98.5 | 95.9 | 89.8 | 76.5 | 50.0 | 25.4 | 8.3 | ||||||||||
| 2800 | 99.1 | 97.0 | 91.5 | 76.9 | 50.0 | 36.6 |